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Los eventos El Niño y La Niña se desarrollan generalmente entre Abril y Junio, por lo cual quiere decir que la región suroeste de los Estados Unidos siente los efectos más prominentes de los cambios de la circulación de ENSO durante el invierno y hasta los principios de la primavera. La influencia de ENSO en el tiempo de la región suroeste se correlaciona con su capacidad de cambiar la posición de la corriente en chorro – los vientos en altura que dirigen los sistemas de tormentas y dictan la posición de las áreas de alta y baja presión. Durante los eventos “El Niño,” la corriente en chorro sobre el Océano Pacifico se desarrolla menos ondulada y se separa en una corriente subtropical cerca del ecuador y una corriente polar más débil. (lee mas)

Figura: Los eventos El Niño y La Niña causan que el pasaje de las corrientes en chorro se muevan sobre los Estados Unidos en diferentes lugares, frecuentemente causando inviernos húmedos durante los eventos El Niño e inviernos secos durante los eventos La Niña en el suroeste.  Imagen modificada de la Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica Nacional (NOAA).

“El Niño” y “La Niña” son parte de la oscilación del sur El Niño, (ENSO por sus siglas). ENSO es una fluctuación natural de las temperaturas superficiales del mar y la presión superficial del aire del Océano Pacifico Tropical entre el este y oeste.  Durante un evento “El Niño,” los vientos alisios del este se debilitan, permitiendo que el agua superficial más cálida  del Océano Pacifico Tropical del oeste corra  hacia el este.  (lee mas).

Figura 1: Eventos El Niño causan que el pasaje invernal de la corriente en chorro  se mueva sobre la región del suroeste, generalmente entregando más lluvia y nieve invernal en la región. Imagen modificada de la Administración Oceánica y Atmosférica Nacional (NOAA).

El Niño conditions continued for an 11th straight month, putting us squarely in the middle of a strong El Niño event that will be among one of the strongest events on record. Forecasts focused on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1–2) and weakened trade winds, enhanced convective activity in the central and eastern Pacific, and El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. Models continue to forecast a strong El Niño event that will last through spring 2016, but we are starting to see signs of decline in the overall strength of the event. (read more)

The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program supports University of Arizona graduate students whose work connects climate research and decision making. The program is made possible by support from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), the International Research Applications Program (IRAP), and the UA Office for Research and Discovery.  Fellows receive $5,000 and guidance from members of the CLIMAS research team for one year. The program’s main objective is to train a group of students to cross the traditional boundaries of academic research into use-inspired science and applied research. While CLIMAS research generally occurs in the Southwest U.S., the Fellows program allows students to work anywhere in the world.

Fellows’ projects may follow two tracks. Students who want to conduct collaborative research may use their funding for use-inspired projects. Students who have conducted climate research and want to communicate their findings to audiences outside of academia may use their funding for outreach. Fellows may also use their funding for a combination of the two tracks.

The Climate & Society Graduate Fellows Program helps students address the world’s climate-related problems by funding projects that engage people outside of the university.

The 2016 Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Climate & Society Graduate Fellows are:

Saleh Ahmed

Developing a Community Hub for Climate Innovations in  Southwest Coastal Bangladesh

Schuyler Chew

Collaborative Outreach and Climate Adaptation Planning with the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe

Stina Janssen

Solar Sovereignty: use-inspired collaborative research for affordable off-grid solar on the Navajo Nation

Sarah Kelly-Richards

Outreach for Small Hydropower Governance in Chile

Joy Liu

Dryland conservation in China: local incentives drive collaborative action on regional climate adaptation

(Read more)

Looking back at Oct-Dec; Did observed weather events correspond with expected (El Niño) climate patterns?

January has kicked off with a bang, and the much anticipated super-mega-Godzilla El Nino is upon us.  El Niño conditions have been in place for months (Figure 1: Oceanic Niño Index), but has this El Niño event been impacting the weather of the Southwest in ways that are expected? Sort of, but not exactly. (read more)

Gregg Garfin discusses SW Climate, monsoon precipitation, and El Niño with KTEP.

Visit the KTEP page for streaming audio and more information

What do wildflowers, hantavirus, downhill skiing, locusts, and floods all have in common? The answer is El Niño in the Southwest. These subjects represent a small sample of media stories written during the last 33 years that connect regional impacts to the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and help illustrate an evolution in our understanding of the significance of El Niño to the region. (read more)

The 2015 eastern Pacific tropical storm season was one of the most active seasons on record, with 18 named storms and 13 hurricanes, nine of which reached “major” hurricane status (category 3 or greater). We also saw the strongest hurricane on record, Patricia, in the eastern Pacific in late October, and the latest-forming major hurricane on record, Sandra, in late November (see NOAA’s National Hurricane Center for more details). This meets or exceeds the high end of the NOAA-Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal forecast (from May 27), which predicted 15 to 22 named storms, seven to 12 hurricanes, and five to eight major hurricanes. The eastern Pacific hurricane forecast was tied to the ongoing El Niño forecast discussion, as conditions linked to El Niño (e.g., decreased wind shear in the tropical Pacific) also favored increased hurricane frequency and intensity in the Pacific region. (read more)