The Nature Conservancy

This project examines community perceptions and decisions about climate science, economics, and policies associated with resilience strategies that address increasing water scarcity in the Southwest. Strategies to be evaluated include: investments in built infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs and pipelines); incentive-based risk-sharing agreements; and watershed ecosystem services. The project emphasizes how ecosystem services can buffer water impacts of climate change, as well as the potential for climate mitigation as a strategy to enhance water supply security. Project outputs will include a replicable method for co-producing resilient water-related climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including scientific and economic evaluation. Potential outcomes include improved water supply reliability and cooperation on adapting to shortages for a regional economy that exceeds $3 trillion annually.

Drought risks and vulnerability varies within regional stakeholder networks. This project aimed to better characterize the complexity of drought vulnerability in the Lower San Pedro watershed. CLIMAS investigators engaged with a mix of stakeholders with shared interest in better understanding how drought and climate vulnerability might shape future climate risks. The project takes a local-to-regional perspective on drought and climate vulnerability and asks how that could inform a drought early warning system.

In partnership with The Nature Conservancy, CLIMAS researchers are assessing the impacts of precipitation variability and temperature changes on vegetation production and mortality and identifying optimal drought monitoring metrics. It focuses on the Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (NCA) to examine longer-term drought impacts in this multi-use Bureau of Land Management NCA. The assessment shows how seasonality and precipitation timing and frequency relate to monthly scale precipitation-based drought indices. The modeling approach was also used to assess the performance of temperature-based indices and further explore the role of increasing temperatures in driving drought stress across the region. CLIMAS researchers have also been working with the Las Cienegas Watershed group as well and may be able to recommend specific drought indices for their ongoing State of the Watershed monitoring.

The goal of this project is to define the ecosystem water needs of the upper Gila River in New Mexico and to evaluate the probable ecological impacts of a diversion proposed under the Arizona Water Settlements Act, New Mexico Unit, considering existing conditions and changing climate. The CLIMAS portion of this project will develop and evaluate climate and hydrological change projections needed by project ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists to evaluate potential impacts of change on hydrological and ecological processes. The research was completed in July 2014, with publication of a report (described below). However, because the research and report are part of ongoing New Mexico policy discussions, there is need for follow-up with responses to critique and efforts to publish in a peer-reviewed journal.

Resource managers face major challenges in developing medium- and long-term management plans considering the uncertainty arising from various climatic and socioeconomic factors. One approach to circumventing what can be a paralyzing level of uncertainty is Scenario Planning. This approach allows managers to “embrace uncertainty” and strategically prepare for a wide range of possible futures. In this project, we worked with the Cienegas Watershed Partnership to develop a set of scenario narratives, with specific scenario sets for each of four resource areas: Montane, Upland, Riparian, and Cultural. Participants were challenged to consider uncertainties and potential changes in climate, social, technological, economic, environmental, and political forces that are beyond the control of the Cienegas Watershed Partnership. Under the auspices of Scenario Planning, each resource group was able to consider and discuss future sets of conditions and management challenges that generally do not get a lot of attention.

Three newsletters were distributed to middle and upper management personnel across the various state and federal organizations that were involved in this project to keep them apprised of our progress.

The goal of this project is to define the ecosystem water needs of the upper Gila River in New Mexico and to evaluate the probable ecological impacts of a diversion proposed under the Arizona Water Settlements Act, New Mexico Unit (NM Unit), considering existing conditions and changing climate. The CLIMAS portion of this project will develop and evaluate climate and hydrological change projections needed by project ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists to evaluate potential impacts of change on hydrological and ecological processes.

This project examines the impacts of drought and climate change on climate sensitive sectors in the Southwest, focusing on agriculture, outdoor recreation, and tourism. Drafted a funded grant proposal on Economic Impacts on Drought on Agriculture, Recreational Tourism, and Rural Communities to a combination of NIDIS and the Arizona Department of Water Resources.

CLIMAS is a partner with The Nature Conservancy’s Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI). SWCCI was initiated in 2008 to engage conservation practitioners and land managers in local-scale climate change adaptation planning and implementation. This project aimed to: (1) further develop and expand impacts assessment activities in each of the Southwest’s Four Corners states (AZ, CO, NM and UT), (2) apply a vulnerability assessment tool being developed by the U.S. Forest Service, and (3) apply an adaptation planning framework developed by a Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (NCEAS) working group to a series of case-study sites in the four states. The case studies provided opportunities to further test and refine each component of the overall framework, by building on new research, strengthening existing partnerships, and laying the foundation for future innovation, including on-the-ground application and testing of adaptation strategies. Other partners included the Wildlife Conservation Society, U.S. Forest Service, University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Western Water Assessment RISA.

This project led to further collaboration between The Nature Conservancy, CLIMAS, and Western Water Assessment.

See The Nature Conservancy's webpage on climate change in New Mexico for more information.

Persistent drought and climate change affect water and energy costs, and hence choices made by farms, cities and industrial water and energy users, as well as energy and water providers’ operations. This project examines potential climate change and variability adaptation strategies related to water and energy in the Colorado River and Rio Grande Basins, including northwestern Mexico. Researchers are investigating how climate influences the market price of water and developing a menu of water and energy supply reliability tools with guidelines for using these tools.

Through engagement with a variety of agencies and stakeholders, we are developing methods, resources, and tools for incorporating climate change and non-stationarity into planning efforts. Through this project and leveraged activities, we are: a) developing and applying scenario planning to address uncertainty of climate change and other stressors; b) evaluating needs and approaches for system-wide climate literacy training of National Park staff; c) identifying the needs and capacities of the water resources sector related to climate change and non-stationarity; d) evaluating methods for combining paleoclimatological information with historical observations and climate change projections; e) communicating uncertainty of projections of Colorado River flows; f) supporting the National Climate Assessment.

To date, we have demonstrated a practical process for using scenario planning to consider climate change in the context of multiple stressors. the approach is now being used within the National Park Service. We have also developed a comprehensive curriculum for improving climate change literacy in the National Park Service.