U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

This project examines community perceptions and decisions about climate science, economics, and policies associated with resilience strategies that address increasing water scarcity in the Southwest. Strategies to be evaluated include: investments in built infrastructure (e.g., reservoirs and pipelines); incentive-based risk-sharing agreements; and watershed ecosystem services. The project emphasizes how ecosystem services can buffer water impacts of climate change, as well as the potential for climate mitigation as a strategy to enhance water supply security. Project outputs will include a replicable method for co-producing resilient water-related climate adaptation and mitigation strategies, including scientific and economic evaluation. Potential outcomes include improved water supply reliability and cooperation on adapting to shortages for a regional economy that exceeds $3 trillion annually.

In spring 2018, a group of Colorado River basin water providers approached the CLIMAS and Western Water Assessment (WWA) RISAS with a request for a comprehensive, state-of-the-science synthesis of the science related to Colorado River climate and hydrology. WWA took the lead in working with 15 researchers and 14 water agencies to develop a report. The final report, over 500 pages in length, was the culmination of 2 years of work to compile and interpret the latest research on this topic. By synthesizing the state of the science in the Colorado River Basin regarding climate and hydrology, this report seeks to establish a broadly shared understanding that can guide the strategic integration of new research into practice. https://wwa.colorado.edu/publications/reports/CRBreport/.

This web page documents the process through which this report was generated. https://sway.office.com/F1DIHYaF36kgDuqK?ref=Link

Drought risks and vulnerability varies within regional stakeholder networks. This project aimed to better characterize the complexity of drought vulnerability in the Lower San Pedro watershed. CLIMAS investigators engaged with a mix of stakeholders with shared interest in better understanding how drought and climate vulnerability might shape future climate risks. The project takes a local-to-regional perspective on drought and climate vulnerability and asks how that could inform a drought early warning system.

In response to prolonged drought conditions and declining storage capacity in Lake Mead, the Bureau of Reclamation called upon Colorado Basin States to develop new drought contingency plans to limit the draw-down of Lake Mead. Arizona’s Drought Contingency Plan calls for significant reductions in surface water supplies delivered to irrigated agriculture in Pinal County. This project considers the effects of these reduced water supplies on: crop production in Pinal county; Arizona dairy production and non-agricultural sectors in the Pinal County economy; and recreational demand around Lakes Mead and Powell. These surface water reductions may reduce the sustainability of agricultural production in Central Arizona.

The goal of this project is to define the ecosystem water needs of the upper Gila River in New Mexico and to evaluate the probable ecological impacts of a diversion proposed under the Arizona Water Settlements Act, New Mexico Unit, considering existing conditions and changing climate. The CLIMAS portion of this project will develop and evaluate climate and hydrological change projections needed by project ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists to evaluate potential impacts of change on hydrological and ecological processes. The research was completed in July 2014, with publication of a report (described below). However, because the research and report are part of ongoing New Mexico policy discussions, there is need for follow-up with responses to critique and efforts to publish in a peer-reviewed journal.

The goal of this project is to define the ecosystem water needs of the upper Gila River in New Mexico and to evaluate the probable ecological impacts of a diversion proposed under the Arizona Water Settlements Act, New Mexico Unit (NM Unit), considering existing conditions and changing climate. The CLIMAS portion of this project will develop and evaluate climate and hydrological change projections needed by project ecologists, biologists, and hydrologists to evaluate potential impacts of change on hydrological and ecological processes.

The purpose of this project is to investigate Colorado River basin droughts, and the climatic factors that influence those droughts. The project uses paleoclimatic data to extend instrumental climate and flow records, along with climate change projections to assess the range of possible conditions that may be expected to occur and to determine how warming temperatures may influence river flow and water supply in the future.

Effects of climate change in arid regions include increased variability in water supplies and changes in water demand due to increased temperatures. These effects pose great challenges for water managers and water users in regions already facing water scarcity. Voluntary arrangements between agricultural water users and those seeking more reliable supplies for urban and environmental needs are an important regional adaptation tool. This guidebook series is intended to assist public agencies, non-profit organizations, irrigation districts, cities, and businesses with design and implementation of water acquisition programs to improve water supply reliability during drought and under climate change.

This project involves economic evaluations of the effects of actual and proposed climate change mitigation policies. It compares and contrasts state energy and carbon emission intensity and climate mitigation policies, seeking to examine how state resource endowments affect policy development and resource use. It also examines strategies to sequester carbon or reduce carbon emissions (particularly through adoption of renewable energy technologies).

This project examines the impacts of drought and climate change on climate sensitive sectors in the Southwest, focusing on agriculture, outdoor recreation, and tourism. Drafted a funded grant proposal on Economic Impacts on Drought on Agriculture, Recreational Tourism, and Rural Communities to a combination of NIDIS and the Arizona Department of Water Resources.