National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Research has established that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern in the equatorial Pacific has relatively predictable seasonal influences on the weather and climate of the US Southwest, making climate information valuable for environmental and economic decision-making. Fire management agencies are an ideal target audience for climate information. Significant work has gone into creating wildfire-specific climate outlooks and information products. Research has identified networks of actors successful at disseminating this information. This study addresses two questions: how is climate information being used to inform wildland fire management decisions and what is the economic value of such information? Focus groups and an online survey of Southwest wildfire experts address the first question and form the basis of an economic analysis of the value of fire management information. This research seeks to reveal what opportunities exist to improve existing products and develop new ones.

In response to prolonged drought conditions and declining storage capacity in Lake Mead, the Bureau of Reclamation called upon Colorado Basin States to develop new drought contingency plans to limit the draw-down of Lake Mead. Arizona’s Drought Contingency Plan calls for significant reductions in surface water supplies delivered to irrigated agriculture in Pinal County. This project considers the effects of these reduced water supplies on: crop production in Pinal county; Arizona dairy production and non-agricultural sectors in the Pinal County economy; and recreational demand around Lakes Mead and Powell. These surface water reductions may reduce the sustainability of agricultural production in Central Arizona.

The Rio Grande|Bravo Climate Impacts & Outlook is a monthly product that provides timely climate, weather, and impacts information to stakeholders, researchers, and other interested parties in the Rio Grande/Bravo Basin region of New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. Each edition recaps conditions over the previous months, including notable events, and then shows forecasts for the next three months for temperature, precipitation, and fire conditions.

The Outlook is a product of the North American Climate Services Partnership (NACSP)—an innovative trilateral partnership between the U.S., Mexico and Canada. This partnership was established to respond to an increasing demand for accessible and timely scientific data and information in order to make informed decisions and build resilience in our communities. CLIMAS is an active participant in the NACSP Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Regional Pilot Area. CLIMAS co-produces the Rio Grande|Bravo Climate Impacts & Outlook with NACSP partners, and is one of several partners hosting the Outlook.

The National Climate Assessment was released on May 6, 2014. The Southwest chapter (Chapter 20) documents critical climate change impacts to the region’s coasts and forests, and projects increased risks to water resources reliability, agriculture, and public health. The chapter notes the special vulnerabilities of native nations and U.S.-Mexico border cities, due to high rates of poverty, and low tax bases for generating resources needed to develop and improve infrastructure, such as safe roads and water treatment and distribution. The chapter also points to adaptive responses by state and local governments, water utilities, forest managers, and federal agencies, to reduce the impacts of current and future changes. The chapter gives an example of how the region can reduce its production of heat-trapping greenhouse gases through adjustment of energy sources used in the generation of electricity, while also reducing water use. See http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest.

The Southwest Chapter for the National Climate Assessment was based on The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, a technical input report published in May 2013. The technical input report is a summary and synthesis of the past, present, and projected future of the region’s climate, examining what this means for the health and well-being of human populations and the environment throughout the six Southwestern states—Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—an area that includes vast stretches of coastline, an international border, and the jurisdictions of more than one hundred Native nations. This year, results from this report were distributed through presentations, publications, and media coverage throughout the Southwest.

Climate information can aid in improving the targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, determining the positioning and movement of initial attack resources, and informing staffing and budgeting decisions. Fire managers at the regional and forest level in California, Arizona, and New Mexico were surveyed to gather information on the timing of key fire management decisions. The survey included year-long decision calendars to assess when and how to efficiently convey climate information to fire managers. Researchers sought to gain insights into decision processes and information flows in fire management, in order to identify optimal points in the decision networks of fire management agencies where climate information may be inserted into decision processes.