University of Arizona - Institute for Energy Solutions

TEP contracted with CLIMAS, based on a previous research partnership, to explore plausible scenarios for greenhouse gas and carbon reduction in their energy portfolio. These scenarios focus on data internal to TEP regarding the economics of portfolio decisions and external social, environmental, or climatic factors that might affect these decisions. CLIMAS provided a critical assessment of the overall process to ensure that robust data and models were used in this scenario development. The project analyzed energy portfolios based on emissions reduction targets and cumulative carbon budgets. These results identify whether the portfolio will hit specified warming targets (e.g., 1.5°C, 2°C) based on the carbon emissions. They also suggest expected temperature increases for each portfolio. Results from this project will inform the company’s 2020 integrated resource plan.

Cumulative emissions offer a robust and empirical method to assess the warming impact of utility energy portfolio scenarios. They assess both the timing and intensity of emissions reductions, and highlight the additional emissions reductions that result when reductions move more quickly than a straight linear reduction. This emphasizes that the way these targets are achieved may be just as important as the targets themselves.

The TEP Carbon Goals – Data and Process GitHub Repository — contains the data and analysis University of Arizona researchers used to guide Tucson Electric Power's carbon goals as part of their 2020 IRP process. The models, assumptions, code, documentation, and results are publicly available. The code is open source and fully transparent. Anyone can replicate, test, or improve our analysis, or update it based on new information or data. The repository was cited in a news story, published on TEP’s 2020 IRP web page, and cited in their 2020 IRP. Members of TEP’s Stakeholder Advisory Council have given comments, responded to ideas, and provided suggestions for the repository. https://github.com/CLIMAS-UA/tepcarbon/.

Monsoon precipitation is difficult to forecast and analyze. Daily and seasonal precipitation are commonly used, but other sources of data, such as citizen science monitoring, could be integrated into a higher resolution and more accurate monsoon assessment framework. Tucson has dozens of observations collected by these networks, along with datasets based on radar and weather models. A central monsoon data repository would form a dense network of observations, facilitate innovative visualizations, and offer an unparalleled high-resolution view of regional precipitation patterns. This project is testing a process to combine southwestern data networks into an integrated monsoon assessment database and data visualization platform.

The Monsoon Viewer shows current monsoon precipitation patterns, based on specific requests from National Weather Service as well as other emergency management stakeholders. They want next day decision support tools for post-event management – researchers designed the viewer with this application in mind. We are exploring a real-time use for the dataset, but the focus is on short term post-event recovery and management. http://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/

The Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping Tool. This mapping tool is a near real-time monsoon season precipitation mapping system developed in May 2019. https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoo….

Monsoon Season Station Summaries can be found at this link: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/stations/monsoon/current.html

Both of these tools were recently added to the National Weather Service’s Tracking the Monsoon webpage: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php