Hopi Department of Natural Resources

The goal of this project is to work with the Hopi Tribe's Dept. of Natural Resources (HDNR) to develop a set of drought indicators and approaches for collecting, analyzing, and utilizing the data needed to support each indicator. In addition to indicators that rely on available temperature and precipitation data, we hope to develop a complementary suite of indicators that utilizes drought impacts information the HDNR has begun to collect. The integrated suite of indicators and processes to support monitoring them will: provide the foundation for revisions to the Hopi Tribe's current drought management and response plan; result in a new stream of locally-derived data and information that could provide input to national drought products like the U.S. Drought Monitor; and be the backbone of a system that would provide local, regional, and national decision makers better insight into developing drought conditions before an event reaches critical levels.

Tree-ring records of past climate not only provide paleoclimatic information about long-term natural climate variability, but are also a source of climate information that is meaningful and accessible to non-specialists. Northeastern Arizona, including Navajo and Hopi tribal lands, is an arid region that has experienced prolonged drought in recent years. People in the region rely on dryland farming and ranching, and these recent drought conditions have had serious impacts on rangelands and water supplies. Climate change will bring warmer and likely drier conditions. In this project, we will utilize three collections of tree-ring data from 1) a site in Tsegi Canyon, 2) a site south of Crown Point, and 3) one other near Fort Wingate, to develop chronologies for these tribal regions. These chronologies will provide an extended history of drought for this region under natural climate variability, which may be useful for placing the current drought in a long-term context. The ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir chronologies will be analyzed for drought information primarily for the cool season, but we will also explore the feasibility of using the latewood widths for summer moisture. The chronologies, and the climate information they contain, will be the basis for a set of outreach materials, both in the form of a handout or brief report written for a general audience, and a presentation for tribal members. Working in concert with CLIMAS team members Ferguson, Crimmins, and Garfin, and their tribal contacts, we will develop these materials in response to needs expressed by these stakeholders.

The Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation have been experiencing widespread and persistent drought conditions for more than a decade. Drought has impacted vegetation and local water resources in ways that threaten agricultural systems and ecosystems that are critical to supporting the Hopi and Navajo people.

Limited hydroclimatological and ecological monitoring across the region has made it difficult to assess current drought impacts and anticipate future impacts. By working with Navajo and Hopi resource managers to develop better drought monitoring tools and tactics, researchers will help these two communities reduce their vulnerability to drought, cope with unavoidable drought impacts, and plan for long-term sustainability in the region.

The second phase of this project is focused on working with the Hopi Department of Natural Resources to develop drought monitoring and planning processes that are useful for tribal decision making.