Southwest Climate Outlook November 2007

November Climate Summary
Drought – Short-term drought conditions continued to improve slightly across
Arizona due to some early fall precipitation while conditions across northeastern
New Mexico have continued to worsen. The National Drought Monitor continues
to show moderate to severe drought across much of Arizona. An expansion of
abnormally dry conditions into New Mexico is due to below-average precipitation
levels persisting over the past several months.
Temperature – Temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico have been above average
for the past thirty days. Arizona has been especially warm, with temperatures
ranging from 4 to 6 degrees F above average. New Mexico temperatures were generally
2 to 4 degrees F above average.
Precipitation – Both Arizona and New Mexico observed much below-average precipitation
over the past thirty days. Most locations in Arizona and New Mexico saw
less than 25 percent of average precipitation for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts paint the Southwest with an aboveaverage
temperature and below-average precipitation forecast through the fall and
into the winter season. The current La Niña event is to blame for the below-average
precipitation forecast and, in part, for the above-average temperature forecast.
The Bottom Line – La Niña continues to be the big story this month with the
prospect of below-average precipitation amounts plaguing the Southwest this upcoming
winter. The fall dry spell has continued across Arizona and New Mexico
over the past month and may continue into the winter with La Niña. This is
prompting concerns of expanding and deepening drought conditions across both
Arizona and New Mexico.