Southwest Climate Outlook May 2007

May Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions continue to plague much of Arizona. West-central
parts of the state are hardest-hit in the short term, while central southeastern Arizona
faces the most severe conditions over the long term. Meanwhile, most of New
Mexico remains drought-free.
Temperature – New Mexico’s temperatures have been running below-normal while
Arizona’s temperatures have been registering above-normal. This pattern emerged
during the water year that began October 1, and continued to be apparent over the
past thirty days.
Precipitation – Precipitation patterns helped explain both the temperature and
drought differences between Arizona and New Mexico. Sunny days warmed and
dried Arizona, while clouds provided relief to New Mexico. Southern New Mexico
received double or more the usual precipitation in the past month, while western
Arizona lacked any measurable precipitation.
Climate Forecasts – Judging from temperature forecasts, Arizona remains vulnerable
to continued drought. Predictions for above-average summer temperatures in
the West center on Arizona and also include New Mexico. No forecasts covering the
Southwest have been issued for precipitation, but drought conditions in Arizona are
projected to improve slightly over the summer with the expected arrival of the annual
monsoonal rains.
The Bottom Line – High temperatures and low precipitation have maintained
drought conditions in much of Arizona, while the opposite conditions have helped
most of New Mexico stay drought-free. Still, the southern portions of both states
are projected to face above-normal fire risk through at least the end of May. The risk
is greatest in lower and middle elevations where grasses can quickly dry into tinder.