Southwest Climate Outlook March 2008

March Climate Summary
Drought – Continued wet conditions have helped improve short-term drought
conditions across much of Arizona this month. Drought conditions expanded across
southern and eastern New Mexico due to below-average precipitation in February.
Temperature – Temperatures were close to average across much of Arizona and
New Mexico over the past thirty days.
Precipitation – Much of Arizona and northern New Mexico observed belowaverage
precipitation over the past thirty days. Spotty precipitation fell across the
northern portions of both states during the period.
ENSO – Strong La Niña conditions persisted again this month across the Pacific
Ocean. Sea surface temperatures fell to 3 degrees C in parts of the western Pacific
while the Southern Oscillation Index rose to 2.7, both indicative of a strong and
mature La Niña.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal climate forecasts project above-average temperatures
and equal-chances for below-average, average, or above-average precipitation. While
strong trends in increasing temperatures continue to support an above-average temperature
forecast for the Southwest.
The Bottom Line – Arizona and New Mexico appear to be making the transition
from an unusually wet and cool winter into a warm and dry spring. Drought conditions
have improved across much of Arizona and northern New Mexico, but have
deteriorated across southern New Mexico due to persistent below-average precipitation.
La Niña is expected to continue through the spring, but typically has diminished
impacts on the Southwest during this dry season. Seasonal climate outlooks
reflect this diminished impact.