Southwest Climate Outlook June 2008

June Climate Summary
Drought – March and April were extremely dry across Arizona, causing short-term
drought status to be downgraded one category for most of the state’s watersheds.
Temperature – In the past month, temperatures in western Arizona and northwestern
New Mexico have been slightly colder than average, while temperatures in
southeastern Arizona and southwestern and north central New Mexico have been
slightly above average.
Precipitation – In the past thirty days, precipitation has been localized and isolated
in both states, typical of convective thunderstorms. Many regions in Arizona have
received greater than 200 percent of the average precipitation; some isolated storms
have caused precipitation to be greater than 800 percent of the average values.
ENSO – A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway. Sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean
have warmed since mid-February. The atmospheric manifestation of La Niña is also
weakening. Most forecast models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming
June–August season.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts for the Southwest predict increased
chances of above-average temperatures for most of the region through December.
The precipitation outlook for Arizona and New Mexico calls for equal chances of
above-, near-, and below-average precipitation through December.
The Bottom Line – Temperatures continued to be above average for much of
the Southwest. This trend is expected to continue. Precipitation was variable. The
amount of monsoon rain, though difficult to predict, may provide drought relief in
some areas.