Southwest Climate Outlook January 2007

January Climate Summary
Drought – Conditions have improved somewhat in New Mexico due to winter
precipitation but have deteriorated slightly in Arizona.
• In the short-term, much of New Mexico is drought-free while most of Arizona
is abnormally dry or in moderate drought.
• Long-term conditions are forecast to improve somewhat with the expectation
of above-average winter precipitation.
Temperature – Temperatures over the past thirty days have generally been cooler
than average for most of the Southwest.
Precipitation – Over the past month, most of Arizona has had below-average precipitation
while large regions in New Mexico have had above-average precipitation.
Climate Forecasts – Forecasters predict increased chances for above-average temperatures
and above-average precipitation for most of the Southwest through May.
El Niño – Weak El Niño conditions are expected to persist through April, though
the current event may have already reached peak strength.
The Bottom Line – Cooler-than-average temperatures combined with predicted
above-average precipitation this winter could mean drought relief, increased water
supplies, and fewer wildfires later in the year for the Southwest.