Southwest Climate Outlook January 2005

January 2005 Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Hydrological drought continues in Arizona and much of
New Mexico.
• Drought impacts have eased in northern and central Arizona and central
New Mexico.
• Many reservoirs have held steady or increased slightly.
Precipitation
– Wetter-than-average conditions dominated the Southwest over the
past 30 days due to recent storm systems. Snowpack is also above average in many
river basins in the region.
Temperature
– Water year temperatures are near average in Arizona and New Mex
-
ico, while the past 30 days have generally been near- to above-average.
Climate Forecasts
– Long-lead forecasts call for increased chances of warmer-than-
average conditions in Arizona and western New Mexico through July. Increased
chances of above-average precipitation are predicted through May.
El Niño
– El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean are forecasted to con
-
tinue through May, although changes in its strength are difficult to forecast.
The Bottom Line
– Limited improvement in drought conditions are expected in
the coming months, although reservoir levels are forecasted to remain low.