Southwest Climate Outlook April 2007

April Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions persist in most of Arizona, while New Mexico remains
mostly drought free.
Fire Danger – Fire danger potential in most of the Southwest is forecast to be normal
this spring, and fire activity is expected to be much less than last year.
Temperature – Temperatures in the Southwest have been above average except for
areas in eastern New Mexico, which have been slightly cooler than average.
Precipitation – Precipitation was above average for much of New Mexico and most
of central and southern Arizona due to the passage of several storm systems.
Climate Forecasts – Temperatures are forecast to be above average through October
2007, while precipitation forecasts predict equal chances of below-average,
average, or above-average rainfall.
El Niño – Current ENSO conditions are neutral, and there is a 50 percent chance
of La Niña conditions developing later this summer.
The Bottom Line – Recent precipitation has kept drought conditions from worsening
in the Southwest, but streamflows and reservoir inflow are forecast to be below
normal this spring due to below-average snowpack and early runoff from warm
temperatures.